With the season 5 finale of Game of Thrones fast approaching, it’s time to make our predictions on how the last episode will turn out. Unlike previous seasons, Sullied book readers like myself can no longer say with certainty what will happen next. Although we have some info, we are now in the same boat as the Unsullied watchers, our powers of schadenfreude diminished. Below are my predictions, organized by location with a percentage (that I made up out of thin air) of the event’s likelyhood.


  • Arya will kill the thin man. - 60%
  • If so, she will poison his oysters as the show hinted or his coins like in the book. 50-50%
  • Arya will kill Ser Meryn Trant. - 100%
  • If so, Jacquen/The Kindley Man will have her blinded as punishment. - 98%


  • Ramsay will physically abuse Sansa on camera. - 80%
  • Sansa will attempt to stab a bitch with Chekhov’s corkscrew. - 100%
  • She will stab Ramsay. - 40%
  • She will stab Reek. - 40%
  • She will stab Roose, Stannis, Melisandre, Brienne, Pod, or some random Winterfellian by accident. - 10%
  • She will be unsuccessful in her stabbing attempt. - 10%
  • She will escape with Reek and/or Brienne’s help. - 70%
  • Outlier - Sansa will die and be resurrected by Melisandre as Lady Stoneheart.

Stannis’s Camp

  • The burning of Shireen will thaw the snows and allow Stannis’s army to march to Winterfell. - 100%
  • The thaw will only last a day or two. - This must happen for MAXIMUM TRAGEDY POINTS.


Castle Black

  • Jon Snow will send Sam and Gilly away for their protection. - 85%
  • If so, they are going to some place that is not the Citadel because D&D don’t have time for magic candles. - 60%
  • Olly will stab Jon Snow. - 99.99%
  • The twist will be that Olly stabs a mutineer instead, saving Jon’s life. - 0.01%
  • Melisandre will somehow make it to Castle Black in time to resurrect Jon Snow. - 5% this season, 95% next season
  • Ser Davos will encounter Wyman Manderly on the road carrying some man-sized meat pies. - 2% but I can dream, can’t I?



  • Dany’s retinue will sit around the throne room moping. - 100%
  • Someone will discover Jorah’s greyscale. - 20%
  • Tyrion will say something clever and drink some wine. - 100%
  • The season will end with Dany and Drogon in the wilderness. She spots a Khalasar in the distance and heads toward it. - 90%


King’s Landing

  • Cersei will walk the naked walk of shame. - 100%
  • Robert Strong will make an appearance. - 95%
  • Olenna will have brokered a deal that lets Margaery go free. - 89%
  • Loras does not go free. - 10%
  • Littlefinger does nothing important but observes Cersei’s walk with a look of creepy triumph. - 90%



  • Something terribly important to the plot will happen. - 8%
  • Ellaria will orchestrate an exciting and well-choreographed attack on Jaime et al. on the way to King’s Landing resulting in the loss of Myrcella’s ear and Doran making good on his threat of “No third chances”. - Maybe next season if we’re lucky


Feel free to agree/disagree and add your own predictions/probabilities.